2024 Signals Winds of Change
As we prepare to usher in 2024, here are the hot topics that Brasidas Group will be on the watchout for in the upcoming year.
2024 Elections
In 2024, record-setting elections are expected in over 70 countries, impacting global dynamics. In Europe, Euroskeptic and right-wing groups may influence unity on key issues. South Africa faces challenges in a crucial election due to government shortcomings. India’s parliamentary elections could secure a third victory for Modi’s BJP, raising democracy concerns. Elections in Pakistan, Taiwan, and Indonesia may worsen global geopolitical and economic trends. The outcomes have critical implications for economic policies and business environments, requiring businesses to stay vigilant and adapt strategies for sustainable growth in the dynamic global market.
The U.S. Election Race
Globally, the most impactful electoral showdown will occur in the United States. Colorado seeks to use the 14th Amendment to bar Trump from the ballot, pending Supreme Court intervention. With divisive candidates from both parties, the outcome of the Presidency and Congress remains to be determined next November.
The Rise of Right-Wing Populism
Though in 2024, we are bound to see more voting than ever, this does not necessarily mean that all elections will be free and fair or that the best candidates will win. Right-wing populism has surged globally, with notable figures like Donald Trump remaining influential post-election. This movement, marked by nationalism and anti-establishment sentiments, extends beyond the U.S., with figures like Marine Le Pen, Geert Wilders, and Jair Bolsonaro. The upcoming year presents an electoral battle between these populists and the establishment, raising concerns about potential consequences for the international order and alliances if neo-isolationists and Euroskeptics secure victories.
Ukraine’s Frozen Frontline
Elections and the state of democracy will be a major topic in the countries fortunate enough to have peace within their borders. For others, eyes will remain fixed on the resolution of conflicts. The Ukrainian counteroffensive’s failure and diminishing Western support jeopardize Ukraine’s future. Despite sanctions, the Russian economy sustains high-intensity operations. Ukraine’s ability to win a war of attrition seems unlikely. The upcoming presidential elections in both countries may influence a potential settlement and impact European security.
The Kurdish Question
Meanwhile, 2024 will also mark 25 years since the controversial arrest of Abdullah Öcalan, which has stirred global Kurdish communities, becoming a code for complex geopolitics. The Israel-Palestine crisis prompts a crucial question: Can Kurdish solidarity reshape the Middle East? In Rojava, Syria, the Kurds navigate a pivotal moment for self-determination amid uncertainties. The fear of past betrayals lingers, urging a cautious pursuit of lasting alliances. 2024 may mark a significant chapter in the Kurdish quest for autonomy amid historical milestones and geopolitical complexities.
Myanmar – China in the War against Scammers
The Myanmar civil war is arguably the longest in the world, but it was generally a low-intensity, local affair. With the military coup that occurred a few years back, the war against the junta did not seem winnable, as dozens of ethnic rebel groups failed to coalesce into an effective democratic opposition to the central authority. However, in a somewhat bizarre series of events, a vast scam industry that sprung up in north Myanmar and Thailand provoked the fury of China, which then (all but confirmed) supported the rebels in making a huge and very successful offensive that is still ongoing. How did a scam industry successfully lead to 100,000 kidnappings and war, and what will this mean for the region and China?
New Stage of the Syrian War
In recent years, the Syrian war has reached an impasse, with various factions occupying distinct parts of the country. The Kurdish militias, while fighting ISIS, established the Autonomous Area of North and East Syria (AANES), aspiring to be a multinational, secular, feminist, and environmentalist democratic entity. With AANES adopting the name Syrian Democratic Republic in its recent constitution, it is intriguing to explore the potential for the war’s conclusion, the U.S. stance on the Kurds, and the implementation of feminist ideas in the region.
How to Harness AI
In 2024, AI will face increasing regulatory scrutiny worldwide. The United Kingdom opts for a sector-led approach, the EU focuses on risk-based regulations, and the U.S. conducts a comprehensive assessment across government entities. AI regulation is essential to address issues like bias and ethical concerns but poses challenges for businesses, impacting costs and reputation. Additionally, state-level cyberattacks and potential changes to GDPR policies may reshape online presence at both corporate and personal levels.
Women (in) Power
Finally, we will keep an eye on a female perspective in this increasingly complex world. With the potential for Claudia Sheinbaum to become Mexico’s first female president and the rise of innovative ventures like GNS Healthcare, Motivo, and Vote.org, promising trends emerge in politics, healthcare, ecology, and fashion. Despite women-led startups showing a remarkable 35 percent return on investment, only 2.2 percent of investor funding supports them. A concerning link between gender violence and climate change underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive global response. In 2024, Brasidas will closely track transformative progress and challenges, emphasizing the collective commitment to gender equality.
2023 Takeaways
As we bid farewell to 2023, let’s reflect on a year marked by global challenges and remarkable resilience. The past year has been nothing short of eventful, from covert transformations to geopolitical insights, political psychology, economic analyses, and worldwide conflicts.
The first 2023 story about Captagon shed light on a nation’s covert transformation, as this stimulant became the drug of choice in the Middle East, providing a lifeline to sanctioned regimes and terrorist organizations.
From a front-row seat to the complex world of geopolitics, James Jim Lawler, former Sr. CIA officer, provided insights into global hotspots, including the U.S. invasion of Iraq, ongoing protests in Iran, and the war in Ukraine, diving into intelligence and security peculiarities. This overview of significant 2023 events could spike discussions on how intelligence is gathered, analyzed, and utilized in decision-making processes.
Transitioning from intelligence intricacies, the next story stepped into the world of political psychology with Dr. Kenneth Dekleva, a former U.S. Department of State officer and seasoned psychiatrist. Offering a glimpse into the psychological profiles of leaders shaping our world, he discussed what may be expected of global powers.
As one of them, China was the pillar of the year’s hero story, which jumped off the page and attracted the most attention. By expanding shipbuilding programs, merchant fleets, and port facilities, the Asian giant puts a spotlight on sea power, seeing it as a strategy for future economic growth.
Two European countries might be on their way to experiencing similar growth with strategic moves in the gas and energy sectors. As the Naftogaz of Ukraine moves away from its previous role of transferring Russian gas, the question arises: Can they make it work? Meanwhile, Murman Margvelashvili, energy sector specialist and director of the think tank World Experience for Georgia broke down the implications of Georgia’s involvement in the Southern Gas Corridor, the pipeline project funneling Azerbaijani gas to southern Europe, and its impact on European energy security. Finally, exploring current global conflicts, the write-up about the Israel-Hamas confrontation analyzes how Hamas funds its operations, deals with sanctions, gets support from foreign allies, and even develops its weapons. These insights provide a concrete understanding of the specific strategies and challenges involved in the ongoing conflict.
At the same time, the Red Sea, a crucial global naval corridor, has been under continuous attack by Houthi rebels from Yemen since November. The conflict originated from Hamas’s infiltration into Israel, prompting an Israeli response and support from Iran. These attacks have caused delays and economic consequences, leading the United States to plan military actions, with lingering uncertainty about its effectiveness. Although the Houthis may disrupt global trade, unfolding changes in Tehran’s policy revealed they could influence their actions.
On the other part of the world, the Venezuela-Guyana border dispute intensified with a December 3 referendum for Venezuela to annex Guyana Essequibo, causing regional instability. These analyses offer a comprehensive perspective on the complex and interconnected challenges influencing the global landscape.
Despite all global tensions, let’s end the year on a positive note, remembering the conversation with Sabrina Simader, the first African woman in the Ski World Cup and the second-ever Kenyan in the Winter Olympics. Brasidas became Sabrina’s official sponsor, hoping to help her excel in her career and spread awareness about the importance of diversity and breaking stereotypes.
